MARKET UPDATE

MARKETS, MORTGAGES, AND METEOROLOGY

Yesterday, Portland's weather was all over the place—sunshine, hail, and rain—kind of like the market right now. Despite another mild inflation report, concerns over tariffs, slowing growth, and underperforming Treasury auctions have kept volatility high. While inflation data is showing signs of cooling, uncertainty surrounding trade policy and economic stability is creating mixed signals for both stocks and bonds.

This morning, the average lender is offering top-tier conventional 30-year fixed rates near 6.81% with no points (source: Mortgage News Daily), another slight uptick after weeks of steady declines.

Rates & Market Takeaways:

• The usual stock-bond relationship is off balance—stocks fell sharply this week, but bond yields held firm, preventing mortgage rates from improving.
• Inflation is cooling, with Core CPI at 3.1% YoY, and projections showing continued progress toward the Fed’s 2-2.5% target.
• Tariffs remain a wildcard, adding pressure to markets and limiting rate improvements.
• The Fed meeting next week will be key—while no rate cuts are expected, their updated economic projections could signal where rates are headed.

For buyers, rates remain well below last year’s peak, so staying flexible is key. If you or your clients are on the fence, now is a great time to discuss strategy. As always, feel free to share this or reach out if you need anything.